The Post Industrial Economy

The focus of this document is outlined in the abstract, while the introduction provides a more complete overview. We go on to examine post Industrial Jobs, in the form of services, craft, art, individualism, self improvement, tourism & recreation, sport, inventions & exploration. The conclusions sum up the future of work.

Abstract

In a time when we have machines versatile and intelligent enough to automate industrial processes, what will become of work? Will humans become useless?

Introduction

The industrial revolution, which occured throughout the 1800's, caused untold upheavals and grief to those whose jobs were being replaced by machines.

Today when you or I purchase a garment for 1/10th the relative cost of the same item made in pre-industrial times, we are unlikely to spare a thought for the people (possibly our own ancestors) who were retrenched or displaced during this time of fundamental change.

Yet, today, we and our children face changes in our lives that would make those upheavals pale by comparison.

These changes will be wrought mostly through automation. Automation of materials acquisiton & processing; machine and structure construction, maintenance & repair will make most jobs evaporate into thin air.

Such areas of employment as agriculture, health care or child care, considered more difficult to automate, are nevertheless, also being eroded by mechanisation and automation.

Larger, more efficient machines reduce a farmers dependance on labourers, while on-line selling of his/her produce eliminates the salesman.

Doctors are able to get a battery of tests done on a patient by sending a vial of the patients blood to a pathology lab that will then, almost without fail, simply put the blood into their testing machine. Expert systems are, right at this minute, being developed for diagnosis of disease - these systems are already at a stage where their accuracy is comparable to the best human diagnosticians (and superior to an average or rushed doctor).

Even child care, you ask incredulously? Every child sitting in front of a television is being entertained and, dare we say, educated by what they see. The footage shown is still created and produced by humans initially, but thereafter is basically mechanised.

Once they become bored with the non-interactive aspect of television, children can then turn to any number of toys based on simple computer chips that will both entertain and educate them.

The question of whether any task or process can be automated is simple. Yes. The only thing left to wonder is ..when?

But what will people do when this comes about? Will we be no more than parasites on the machines that do the work?

Post Industrial Jobs

My view, based on study of history and human nature, is just as simple. No! Humans will redefine what work is and the world economy will falter 'momentarily' before recovering and continuing on in its own inexorable way.

Here are some areas of human endeavour that will become 'mainstream' professions once we've managed to automate the majority of today's jobs.

Personal Services

It is interesting to note how many people will walk straight past a vending machine to a crowded sales counter to purchase a product. The conversation that ensues, short as it may be, is the basic reason for this. People like human contact.

As machines and automation become more prevalent, this basic human trait becomes more pronounced. The consumer actively seeks out the services of another human.

Other occupations, where human contact is the main part of the job, can look forward to a significant increase in patronage as time goes by.

The fields of human endeavour to benefit from this effect will include:

• Personal Trainer (Fitness, Beauty, Deportment etc.)
• Massage and Manipulation
• Sex Work (The oldest profession will be the last to disappear)
• Counselling, Companionship, Therapy
• Naturopathy & Herbal Healing
• Spiritual Healing, Astrology etc.
• Serving people as waiters etc.

Crafts

In Australia, you can walk into any department store and buy a coffee mug for around $1.50. Artists who hand turn coffee mugs to sell at fairs and markets can expect 5 to 10 times that amount.

The mugs they make are often oddly shaped, asymmetrical containers with handles too small to comfortably put your fingers through. You would be hard pressed to buy a 'set' of such mugs as no two are the same. Therein lies their value.

The person using the mug can be confident that there is no other mug in the world quite like the one they are holding. It gives them the sense that this is not just a coffee mug, but it is unmistakably and undeniably their coffee mug.

This sense is even more predominant in communal situations (share house, dormitory, work place) where the mug helps to state a person's individuality and seperates them from the crowd.

It is this strong sense of individuality that will lead to a resurgence of 'hand made' crafts. Other inclusions in this category could be

• Weaving, Knitting, Embroidery & needlework
• Blacksmith
• Glass Blower
• Wood Worker
• Jeweller
• Furniture & Architectural design
• Fashion & Apparel

Art

The arts in general will expand to become a major part of our lives. Literature will be much more widespread, 'Art House' pictures will become ever more predominant, recorded versions of plays and theater will fall to live and instantaneous versions of the same, this will also occur with music.

Painting, sculpture and other fine arts can also look forward to a 'golden age', where both the producers and consumers are far greater in number than what currently exists.

Individualism

'Stock' machines, whether they are in the form of a fridge or Rolls Royce, will become cheaper by the year. As the automation of manufacture becomes more prevalent, it will reach a point where everybody can afford a luxury car.

When this occurs, most people will no longer be satisfied with just a car. They will want a car that uniquely reflects their personality and character. The car that is not individually customised will be considered a 'poor man's car'.

Self Improvement

In today's society, education may last for only a few years in 2nd and 3rd world economies (if the person is lucky enough to recieve any education), in 1st world countries, that may extend to 20 or 25 years.

In future the period of education & mental exploration will become longer. Just in terms of self improvement there are many areas that could consume an entire life time (or three). Some suggestions...

• Learning - History, Politics, Math/Science, Crafts & Skills..
• Philosophy
• Religion
• Body Building/Fitness
• Character Development
• Linguistic & Cultural studies

Tourism & Recreation

Tourism will become so popular and prevalent that tourists will need to book their holidays far in advance. It will be necessary to limit numbers attending natural and human made marvels in order to avoid their destruction.

Obscure and out of the way places will also become popular tourist destinations, if only for there ability to give a tourist the solace and wide open spaces that are becoming more difficult to find 'at home'.

Ironically, in a world permeated by 'manglish' and McDonalds, tourism may be the very thing which enables us to preserve disappearing languages and cultures. Our future tourists would be quite disappointed to go to a 'foreign' place only to be spoken to in English by people who dress and act just like themselves.

Sport

Sport is, even today, a major industry. This can only increase as time goes by.

Many sports we play have there basis in the skills we valued as hunter-gatherers. We are now far removed from those humble beginnings yet sport has gone from strength to strength. I suspect this is largely because we have an instinctive need to get 'back to our roots'.

Not only will the major sports be even more popular in the future, but obscure sports will become more popular and archaic sports resurrected. Most people love a good game, whether as spectators or active participants.

Design & Invention

With the time to exercise our natural ingenuity, the rate of invention of new devices will increase exponentially. Attempting to predict where this could lead human kind is useless. Many of the ground breaking inventions of times past changed our lives in ways so fundamental that they had never before been conceived.

Exploration & Discovery

Even with the 6 billion humans living on Earth today, large areas of the land surface have received little close scrutiny and there are many smaller plants and organisms yet to discover (let alone name, study etc.).

We have hardly begun to explore the oceans that cover 70% of Earth's surface.

If we were to 'finish' the exploration of Earth (I argue we never will), we can then turn to such new vistas as the Moon, Venus, Mars and the moons of Jupiter and Neptune even before we leave our own stellar 'back yard'.

Beyond that we have an entire universe to explore..

Conclusion

As time goes by, more and more people will be able to turn from tasks that have to be done, to tasks they want to do. Some of these tasks will be the sorts of things that are only of interest to the individuals themselves. Many more will be of the general nature of things we enjoy doing today, but there's currently no 'market' for.

Humans are, by their very nature, curious and easily bored. I look forward to the time when we can allow our curiousity and creative traits to reach their full expression.

spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer.